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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2026-03-16T13:26:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2026-03-16T13:26Z
DONKI Link: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/45103/-1
CME Note: This CME is visible as a partial halo directed to the northeast in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and GOES CCOR-1 imagery. This event is not seen in STEREO A COR2 imagery in real-time due to a data gap starting at 2026-03-14T12:09Z. The source is an M2.7 flare and eruption from Active Region 14392 (S15E19) starting around 2026-03-13T12:00Z as seen in GOES SUVI 131/171/195/284/304 imagery. A corresponding EUV wave is observed moving primarily northwest of the eruption site in GOES SUVI 195/304 imagery, with post-eruptive arcades visible starting around 2026-03-16T13:00Z. | Arrival information: Analysis of the complex arrival signature over 3/19 thorugh 3/22 indicates that we likely did not observe this CME separately from the other arrival signatures, and considering it a miss.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2026-03-19T08:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.33 - 6.33
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
:Product: NOAA 3-day Geomagnetic Forecasts
:Issued: 2026 Mar 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
#
NOAA Ap Index Forecast
Observed Ap 15 Mar 017
Estimated Ap 16 Mar 012
Predicted Ap 17 Mar-19 Mar 010-008-040

NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Mar-19 Mar
Active                30/25/15
Minor storm           10/05/20
Moderate storm        01/01/35
Strong-Extreme storm  01/01/25

NOAA Kp index forecast 17 Mar - 19 Mar
             Mar 17    Mar 18    Mar 19
00-03UT        2.67      2.67      1.67      
03-06UT        3.00      2.33      5.33      
06-09UT        2.33      2.00      6.33      
09-12UT        2.00      1.33      5.67      
12-15UT        2.00      1.67      4.33      
15-18UT        2.00      2.00      3.33      
18-21UT        2.33      2.33      3.67      
21-00UT        2.67      2.67      4.00

Lead Time: 60.08 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Mary Aronne (M2M SWAO) on 2026-03-16T19:55Z

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